S2-3: Investigate simple situations that involve elements of chance, recognising equal and different likelihoods and acknowledging uncertainty.
This means students will recognise that probability is about the chance of outcomes occurring. Through activities that involve them personally, students at Level Two are expected to consider the possible outcomes of events in predicting what might occur. Through carrying out experiments, for example playing a game of chance, and making simple models of all the outcomes, for example lists or tables, students should recognise when outcomes appear to be equally likely, for example getting an even number when tossing a dice. Students should also recognise that where an event has more than one possible outcome they cannot predict the outcome with certainty, for example "it probably won’t be a six but it might be" when rolling a dice. Students should relate probability to events in their daily life, for example "it is very likely to rain today".