# S2-3: Investigate simple situations that involve elements of chance, recognising equal and different likelihoods and acknowledging uncertainty.

This means students will recognise that probability is about the chance of outcomes occurring. Through activities that involve them personally, students at Level Two are expected to consider the possible outcomes of events in predicting what might occur. Through carrying out experiments, for example playing a game of chance, and making simple models of all the outcomes, for example lists or tables, students should recognise when outcomes appear to be equally likely, for example getting an even number when tossing a dice. Students should also recognise that where an event has more than one possible outcome they cannot predict the outcome with certainty, for example "it probably won’t be a six but it might be" when rolling a dice. Students should relate probability to events in their daily life, for example "it is very likely to rain today".

- Recognise that not all things occur with the same likelihood.
- Observe that some things are fairer than others.
- Explore adjusting the rules of games to make them fairer.

explore probabilities in a simple game

understand probability as it relates to simple dice games.

- Classify whole numbers as even or odd and generalise the nature of sums when even and odd numbers are added.
- Recognise that sums remain the same if the same amount is added and subtracted to the two addends, e.g. 17 + 19 = 27 + 9.
- Create and follow instructions to make a model made with shapes. 300

calculate a bank balance using addition and subtraction

- Understanding that some events are more and less likely than others.
- Using appropriate language relating to probability.

- Make statements about probabilities shown on a spinner.
- Evaluate statements classmates make about probabilities shown on a spinner.
- Provide reasons to support their evaluation of the statement.

- Use dice etc to assign roles and discuss the fairness of games.
- Play probability games and identify all possible outcomes.
- Compare and order the likelihood of simple events.

use a diagram to find all possible outcomes

investigate the probability of an event occurring