# That's the way the cookie crumbles

Purpose

The purpose of this multi-level task is to engage students in an investigation that leads to the comparison of experimental probability, with a theoretical probability.

Achievement Objectives
S5-3: Compare and describe the variation between theoretical and experimental distributions in situations that involve elements of chance.
S5-4: Calculate probabilities, using fractions, percentages, and ratios.
Description of Mathematics

The background knowledge presumed for this task is outlined in the diagram below:

This task may be 'scaffolded' with either a focus on following the procedures given, or it may be given as an opportunity for students to design their own simulation. The approach should be chosen in sympathy with their skills and depth of understanding.

Activity

Task: A bakery is producing cookies for a fundraising drive. The cookies come in packs of 5.

A fault in the design of the machinery means that one in every ten cookies crumbles when packed.

1. Model this process to work out an experimental probability of getting exactly two crumbled cookies in a pack.

2. Compare your experimental probability with the theoretical probability of getting two crumbled cookies in a pack.